Clinton '08 as Bush '00

The Politico's Elizabeth Wilner argues that the Clinton 2008 campaign in many ways emulates the Bush 2000 campaign. New York Magazine's 'Hillary Control' made a similar case earlier this week, though in less certain language.

Yet Hillary does not have the mega-hold on key endorsements that Bush had in 2000 -- like those of 29 of 30 Republican governors that kept his head above water after defeats in the early contests.

DLC follow-up

Here's DLC Chair Harold Ford, Jr., speaking about the Democratic presidential candidates in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.

They'll find their way back to the middle. And if they don't, they won't win.

Huh? What makes Harold Ford think it's the Democrats who are out of the mainstream?

Shrum's allegations

Last night in the HRC/LOGO Forum, John Edwards was asked about the alleged "I'm not comfortable around those people" statement recalled in Bob Shrum's No Excuses, widely reported as it was one of the main teasers during the book's promotion.

But why wasn't Hillary Clinton asked about Shrum's contention -- made in the very same book -- that her husband urged John Kerry to come out in support of a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage during the 2004 campaign?

Edwards denied Shrum's account last night, as he had many times before. A Bill Clinton spokesman has also disputed Shrum, as John Aravosis investigated the allegation.

True, Hillary is not Bill, though he is her chief political adviser. This Shrum allegation is more than some feeling expressed in a conversation; it was political advice to a candidate for president -- the very position she is in today.

Besides, Shrum's book was a worthy enough source for an Edwards question. Hillary should have been called to account for what Shrum said, too.

Important question

John Edwards' campaign posted this video from Monday night's AFL-CIO debate.

DLC's decline

Noam Scheiber replies to DLC criticisms of his New York Times op-ed last month.

The DLC says it's a mistake to read too much into the decision by the Democratic presidential field to skip its "National Conversation" this year, pointing out that Al Gore skipped the event in 1999 and that the major presidential candidates also sat it out in 2003.... Perhaps a more useful benchmark is the number of likely candidates who attend its convention two years out.

By that benchmark, the DLC still appears to be in decline. As my former colleague Ryan Lizza pointed out earlier this year, "In 2002, the National Conversation was a major stop for anyone testing the waters for 2004. Lieberman, Bayh, Daschle, Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Mark Warner, John Edwards, and Dick Gephardt were all there."

Scheiber goes on to list some symptoms of the the DLC's downfall, one of the best points being about how the Democratic Party has changed so much since the organization's founding in 1985.

[T]he interest-group structure that was responsible for some of the party's excesses in the 1970s and '80s has been largely dismantled.... For example, it leaves From at a loss to explain why the netroots--which he seems to regard as a kind liberal uber-interest group--would support relatively conservative candidates in conservative districts and more liberal candidates in liberal districts. Traditional interest groups aren't nearly so flexible.

Edwards rebuffed

Yesterdy, John Edwards came under fire from Joe Biden's campaign today for inauthenticity. Biden adviser Larry Rasky said, "It seems like he has decided to play Howard Dean in this election," and "Sooner or later they will look at your record" (among other things).

And Edwards was quickly rebuffed for this jab at Hillary Clinton last night:

You will never see a picture of me on the front of Fortune magazine saying 'I am the candidate that big corporate America is betting on.'

Within three hours, The Huffington Post reminded Edwards of his 2002 speech to the "Fortune Global Forum" -- an event "limited to the chairmen, CEOs, and presidents of major multinational corporations."

Old Guard versus New

Chuck Todd frames tonight's AFL-CIO debate as a clash between "the old guard of Washington" -- Clinton, Biden and Dodd -- versus Obama and Edwards.

It's a fascinating dynamic that I think is developing in this primary. But how long can Edwards and Obama be allies and how comfortable will Dodd and Biden be carrying Clinton's water?

Meanwhile, "Richardson is going to be the under-the-radar candidate; it's obvious; he's not getting involved in the bashing of Obama, Edwards and Clinton and that could pay dividends in Iowa."

Axelrod says Obama competes in the South

Last week, National Journal's Linda Douglass interviewed Obama advisor David Axelrod.

Q: What state do you see Obama winning that John Kerry did not?

Axelrod: I think he can and will win every state that Senator Kerry did. I think there are other states that he will win, starting with Ohio. But I think he will put other states in play that no other [Democrat] can put in play. There is no doubt that the energy and enthusiasm in the African-American community will give us a chance in some Southern states where there is a high number of African-American voters, and some who are not necessarily registered to vote. We can increase that registration, we can increase that turnout, and put those states in play.

From's 'silly fights'

Time columnist Joe Klein wrote about Al From and the DLC this week, joining the 'DLC is radioactive' pile-on but pretty much on point. "From is a moderate who acts like an extremist," writes Klein.

When Klein said From picked "silly fights" (i.e. calling Al Gore "too liberal" after the 2000 election or the relentless criticism of Howard Dean in 2003), Ed Kigore responded,

What I actually recall saying to Joe [Klein] in our conversation at the DLC event is that the fight over Dean (arguably just a standard-brand nominating season fight) did indeed lead to a demonization of the DLC among many elements of the netroots, fed in part by occasional but provocative DLC quotes comparing the Doctor to McGovern and Mondale, which were not intended as compliments. More importantly, the fracas helped soldify a netroots stereotype of the DLC as an essential--perhaps the essential--part of the DC Democratic Establishment, which completely submerged the DLC's past history as party outsiders, and continuing focus on non-Beltway elected officials, as reflected in the entire eleven-year history of the DLC's annual meeting. I also told Joe that unexpressed hostility to Bill Clinton, and expressed hostility to Hillary Clinton, was a motivating factor for some DLC-haters in the party, who invariably identify the DLC with Dick Morris' infinitely unfortunate term, "triangulation."

More attack, more attention

Here's a link to First Read, but several outlets (soon all) are talking about Chris Dodd and now Joe Biden jumping into the fray.

Obama's breaks

For anyone who's been criticized for opposing Hillary Clinton because they're too liberal, Thomas B. Edsall has a must read on Obama's breaks with the Democratic orthodoxy.

Barack Obama's August 1 speech outlining an aggressive anti-terrorist policy is part of the Illinois Senator's larger campaign strategy, demonstrating his willingness to break from liberal orthodoxy -- defying teachers' unions, proponents of racially based affirmative action, and Democratic constituencies wary of the use of force.

Clinton disappointment

Read Sullivan's excellent 'Clinton, Obama and Fear.'

Clyburn endorsement far off

Yesterday, Rep. James Clyburn (D - SC) said that while he'll "be looking at things in December," if the Democratic presidential race maintains its current course, he "probably won't endorse."

Clyburn is the highest ranking African American in House leadership from a state where as much as 50% of the Democratic primary voters will be black. In 2004, he endorsed Senator John Kerry, though the black vote was largely divided.

(Via Marc Ambinder)

Next year

The DLC's Marc Dunkelman says, 'See you next year,' to the Democratic presidential candidates (via The Democratic Strategist)

In 1999, eight years ago, Al Gore did not attend the DLC’s national conversation. A year later, he addressed the DLC’s 2000 National Conversation as the Democratic Party’s nominee.

In 2003, four years ago, none of the candidates attended the DLC’s National Conversation. Sure enough, the next year, the Democrat’s standard bearer, John Kerry, made an appearance.

North Carolina's electoral votes

Via Political Wire, North Carolina's House is expected to pass a bill to assign Electoral College votes by congressional district rather than the winner-take-all system, which is in place everywhere except for Maine and Nebraska. The bill almost guarantees that the 2008 Democratic nominee peels off reliably Republican electoral votes, and thus the measure has served as an indicator of party loyalty: not a single GOP legislator supports it, while only a few Democrats are in opposition.

Supporters contend it will cause both national parties to pay North Carolina more attention, while detractors say that even if such a tight race were to occur (one where 3 electoral votes could make the difference), it would only affect a few areas. Frankly, since the bill helps the party of the state's governing majority, it's hard to see it as anything other than partisan.

But on the bright side, its passage could be the dawn of a bi-partisan solution.

Given the impending bill, North Carolina Republicans would definitely prefer a National Popular Vote law, like the one recently signed by Maryland Governor Martin O'Malley, in which the state pledges its electoral votes to the winner of the national popular vote regardless of the in-state winner, only to be enacted when enough states (possessing an Electoral College majority of 270) do the same. That way, the winner of the national popular vote is sure to have enough Electoral College votes to become president.

The latest information shows that all sponsors of the National Popular Vote in North Carolina are Democrats. Don't be surprised if Republicans are soon its most enthusiastic supporters.

Continuing the Fifty State Strategy

Read Bob Moser's 'Purple America' in The Nation.

Politics as usual

There are two videos sitting prominently atop the HillaryHub, a site paid for by the Clinton campaign. One is of Barack Obama on MSNBC, responding to attacks made on him by Clinton surrogates for agreeing to engage our enemies in a dialogue. The next is Hillary Clinton scolding Barack Obama for taking part in negative 'politics as usual.'

Notice how the Clinton people blurred the Obama video while Clinton's footage is clear and crisp (couldn't have been shoddy film because the MSNBC banner/ticker received the same blur-treatment).

Clinton/Obama spat

On Democratic nominees & equality

On the YouTube Democratic Debate