Public Ledger by JRB

An old fashioned campaign

2008-06-04T12:07:00.002-04:00

John McCain is suggesting that he and Barack Obama travel on the same plane to make 10 joint appearances at town hall events.

This proposal is similar to what John Kennedy and Barry Goldwater were considering back in 1963 when it seemed the Arizona Senator would be the GOP nominee.

Iran, elections and nuclear fuel

2008-05-31T09:37:00.003-04:00

A rival of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was elected speaker of that country's parliament earlier this week.

The New York Times describes Ali Larijani as someone who is more conservative than Ahmadinejad, yet possibly more pragmatic in dealing with the West.

He is also a proponent of the country's nuclear development program, which would be totally even more unnecessary under Sam Nunn and Dick Lugar's proposal for Russia and the United States to lock down nuclear materials and assure nuclear-fuel services "both providing and removing the fuel needed for civilian nuclear energy."

The conservative gripe with Jindal

2008-05-28T16:20:00.002-04:00

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal received Grover Norquist's endorsement last week, but the Club for Growth finds that Jindal violated the ultimate standard of Norquist's own organization, Americans for Tax Reform, by breaking the "Taxpayer Protection Pledge."

Ahmadinejad's spats

2008-05-20T10:54:00.003-04:00

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is getting in a lot of spats with his clerics. Is he a gaffe-prone loose cannon or trying to paint himself as a self-righteous advocate for women? Will he try to circumvent the mullahs and grab absolute power?

The latter seems unlikely, and that it is mere pompousness leading him to make gaffes in the religious radicals' eyes. Remember, this comes shortly after Ayman Al-Zawahiri's public chiding of him.

Sorensen interview

2008-05-17T10:09:00.002-04:00

Picked up Sorensen's new memoir last night. Here he is on Leonard Lopate.

The Vietnam caucus

2008-05-17T08:23:00.003-04:00

Matt Bai, at the start of his long profile of McCain in the New York Times Magazine, discusses why McCain has found himself in opposition to the military measures undertaken by his fellow Vietnam veterans.

They are wary of seeming to denigrate McCain’s service, marked by his legendary endurance in a Hanoi prison camp, when in fact they remain, to this day, in awe of it. And yet in private discussions with friends and colleagues, some of them have pointed out that McCain, who was shot down and captured in 1967, spent the worst and most costly years of the war sealed away, both from the rice paddies of Indochina and from the outside world. During those years, McCain did not share the disillusioning and morally jarring experiences of soldiers like Kerry, Webb and Hagel, who found themselves unable to recognize their enemy in the confusion of the jungle; he never underwent the conversion that caused Kerry, for one, to toss away some of his war decorations during a protest at the Capitol. Whatever anger McCain felt remained focused on his captors, not on his own superiors back in Washington.

For his part, Bai points out that former Sen. Bob Kerrey disagrees with this characterization.

California permits marriage equality

2008-05-15T13:18:00.003-04:00

The AP reports that the California State Supreme Court has overturned a ban on marriage equality.

The only thing better could be to do it through the legislature.

'Next-war-itis'

2008-05-14T12:41:00.002-04:00

Secretary of Defense Robert Gates thinks technological combat innovations need to be slowed in order to address more pressing needs and excessive spending.

Maps

2008-05-14T09:42:00.001-04:00

Chuck Todd asks, 'Is the Democratic divide geography?'

Is there an argument that Obama's troubles are basically Appalachia, just like Clinton's troubles can be excused away by Obama's Midwestern roots? It is striking how geographic their strengths are right now. Obama dominates in the South and in the Midwest while Clinton owns the Northeast and, well, Appalachia.

Primay absence

2008-05-11T12:46:00.003-04:00

Despite repeated mentions of Hillary and Barack's quarrels over white voters on today's Sunday talk shows, there was nary a mention of Doug Goodyear, McCain's handpicked choice to run the Twin Cities' Republican National Convention, who resigned yesterday after a Newsweek story revealing him as the the Burmese military junta's lobbyist to Washington.

So it seems McCain will come away from this unsavory tie unscathed. But Democrats should ask themselves, 'Would he have gotten off so easily had Hillary stepped down earlier this week?'

Lieberman whipping Clinton Dems for McCain?

2008-05-11T01:09:00.001-04:00

So says Bob Novak.

Oh, Anthony Weiner

2008-05-10T22:15:00.001-04:00

Here the future (present?) mayoral candidate is on his House floor meeting with Barack Obama:

I've developed something of a reputation for being a Hillary partisan on the floor. And so some of my buddies said, 'Hey, we got someone you want to meet,' and brought him over to say hello, and he—we exchange—I told him I was like that skinny Chinese kid in Tiananmen Square standing in front of the tank, I might be the last one.

What she's warmed up to

2008-05-09T13:18:00.002-04:00

Jonathan Chait of The New Republic decimates -- just decimates! -- what Hillary Clinton's campaign rhetoric has morphed into.

Consider this analysis recently offered by Bill Clinton in Clarksburg, West Virginia: "The great divide in this country is not by race or even income, it's by those who think they are better than everyone else and think they should play by a different set of rules." This is precisely the dynamic that allows multimillionaires like George W. Bush and Bill O'Reilly to present themselves as being on the side of the little guy. A more classic expression of conservative populism cannot be found.

Prices

2008-05-08T22:54:00.002-04:00

N.Y. Mercantile Exchange light, sweet crude (barrel): $123.69

Average at U.S. fueling stations (gallon): $3.65

Average U.S. price of whole milk in April (gallon): $3.72

Fossella's luck

2008-05-08T22:51:00.002-04:00

If there's one thing that Rep. Vito Fossella can be thankful for, it's that Rudy Giuliani is in Kiev and not the presumptive Republican nominee, or else his name would be on the tips of every news broadcaster in the country rather than just New York.

Why Obama will be OK in Ohio

2008-05-07T11:44:00.001-04:00

After last night

2008-05-07T11:21:00.001-04:00

If you haven't added "Barack Obama" to your spell-check yet, now's probably the time to do it.

Chris Matthews way over the top last night

2008-05-07T09:18:00.003-04:00

This question to Harold Ford, Jr., via Hotline:

"Do you think Hillary Clinton has the soul of a vice president?"

Russert's take

2008-05-06T21:44:00.003-04:00

The gas tax holiday did Hillary Clinton in tonight -- at least Tim Russert thinks so.

Just now on MSNBC, he said the gas tax debate helped shift focus away from Jeremiah Wright and onto an issue where Barack Obama took a principled stand and she looked untrustworthy.

Slow results do damage, regardless of the outcome

2008-05-06T21:01:00.002-04:00

The lag in reports from key Democratic districts in Indiana has to be murder on Hillary Clinton's fundraising this evening. The early projection of victory for Barack Obama in North Carolina was certainly a blow to her campaign's confidence. This long wait surely is not helping to assuage anxious supporters, wondering what shape her bid will be in tomorrow morning.

New LBJ telephone tapes

2008-05-06T15:07:00.003-04:00

The Lyndon Baines Johnson Library and Museum has newly released tapes and transcripts from the months leading up to and following his decision not to seek re-election.

A lot of fascinating material in here, especially possibly one of the first callers following his announcement: Abigail McCarthy. From the notes:

MRS. MCCARTHY TELLS LBJ SHE IS OVERCOME WITH EMOTION FOLLOWING LBJ'S SPEECH; LBJ THANKS HER, SAYS HE WILL WORK FOR PEACE.

Searching for freedom, efficiency

2008-05-06T12:57:00.004-04:00

Robert Worth has a great piece on the development of democracy in the Middle East, with a case study in Kuwait. The takeaway?

It is unlikely that many Kuwaitis would be willing to trade their political rights and freedoms for more economic opportunity. But the notion that democracy is somehow holding Kuwait back is common.
“It’s true, the friction in our politics delays things,” said Kamel Harami, an oil analyst. “The sheik of Abu Dhabi can say, ‘Go build this,’ and it’s done. He doesn’t have me, the press, the TV stations, the Parliament, getting in his way. But what people need to understand is that democracy isn’t the problem; it’s that democracy isn’t being used correctly.”

Radical centrist

2008-05-06T09:02:00.003-04:00

Mark Warner is making "radical centrist" a battle cry of his campaign for Senate, a term that has not been in vogue for some time now.

While I was away

2008-05-06T08:37:00.001-04:00

Ken Livingstone was ousted as London mayor, in a bad omen for Labour.

Gas tax a no win?

2008-05-06T08:31:00.002-04:00

Michael Crowley looks at something John Harwood and Harold Ickes were discussing on MSNBC:

That the gas tax holiday isn't just bad policy, it's bad politics insofar as superdelegates see it as a cynical pander that turns them off to Hillary.

Does it also make it easier for them to discount some of her latest victories, as easily won through pandering?

Early shutdown

2008-05-06T08:19:00.002-04:00

Mark Halperin says polls in Indiana close at 6 p.m., local time.

Limited polling times mean anyone who commutes an hour or so to work and doesn't vote in the morning could miss out.

Hillary Clinton is from (fill in primary state here)

2008-04-29T15:17:00.001-04:00

After her ad about a Scranton cottage "with no heat or indoor shower," the New York Senator reminds she is actually from Indiana-bordering Illinois.

Help or hurt?

2008-04-29T07:51:00.003-04:00

The editorial board of the Washington Times says that Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour told them that he is too conservative to be John McCain's running mate.

Perhaps they are paraphrasing him, because Barbour is never quoted as explicitly saying so in the interview.

What New York Democrats will be overheard asking

2008-04-28T16:19:00.003-04:00

How do you dispute charges like these without looking like you're defending Eliot Spitzer?

Lightly commits

2008-04-28T12:00:00.004-04:00

The Boston Globe editorial board knocked Hillary Clinton yesterday for comments she made with regard to Iran launching a nuclear attack on Israel. Originally she said such an act would garner "massive retaliation," following it up with this statement to ABC's Chris Cuomo:

I want the Iranians to know that if I'm the president, we will attack Iran [in the event they launch a nuclear strike against Israel]. In the next 10 years, during which they might foolishly consider launching an attack on Israel, we would be able to totally obliterate them.

The Globe points to chiding reactions from around the world, disappointed that Clinton would publicly make such a commitment.

While Clinton has hammered Obama for supporting military strikes in Pakistan, her comments on Iran are much more far-reaching. She seems not to realize that she undermined Iranian reformists and pragmatists. The Iranian people have been more favorable to America than any other in the Gulf region or the Middle East.

A presidential candidate who lightly commits to obliterating Iran - and, presumably, all the children, parents, and grandparents in Iran - should not be answering the White House phone at any time of day or night.

But can America reasonably sit by while Israeli civilians are being annihilated? Absolutely not. While it should not be voiced, what other reaction could possibly be taken?

Time traveler

2008-04-27T19:56:00.003-04:00

Ryan Lizza writes about one of the strangest developments in the 2008 campaign: Bill Clinton's inability to adapt to today's political media.

“It’s like he’s been plucked out of time and thrown into the middle of this entirely new kind of campaign,” the adviser told me. Jay Carson, a senior Clinton campaign official and Bill’s former spokesman, said, “Because of the way he is covered, the only thing anyone ever sees is fifteen seconds that is deemed by the pundits to be off message.”

Who sets the table

2008-04-27T13:13:00.002-04:00

In making a point about how issues get lost in the fray, Gwen Ifill points to Obama's big flaw in Pennsylvania:

One of the most amazing things about Pennsylvania is ... how much Barack Obama, in trying to chase after voters in places like Scranton and Steelton, where I once lived, I'm telling you, he wasn't going to win in Steelton and only made one big appearance in Philadelphia, where his base was. His theory, up until now, had been, "Run up my numbers in the places where I'm strong." But he only, Friday night before the election, made--had a big--one big rally in Philadelphia, while the Clintons were running rings around him in the suburbs, where he was supposed to be strong, and he didn't do as well as he was supposed to. So there's something--it, it seems like that campaign gets thrown off balance when Hillary Clinton sets the table for where they ought to be and what they ought to say.

Violence at the center of the world

2008-04-27T12:58:00.005-04:00

The images coming out of the attempt on Afghan President Hamid Karzai's life on a stand at a military parade commemorating the defeat of the Soviets are strangely familiar, reminiscent of the assassination of Chechen President Akhmad Kadyrov.

Kadyrov died in 2004 because of a bomb planted in a concrete pillar underneath his seat at a parade celebrating the defeat of the Nazis. Karzai and his party were fired upon by small arms and RPGs, killing three, including a 10 year old boy.

Blair thinks Labour bound for defeat

2008-04-27T12:41:00.004-04:00

A new book from a close confidant of Tony Blair says that the former prime minister does not believe his successor Gordon Brown can defeat Conservative Party leader David Cameron.

“But Gordon? ’He can’t defeat Cameron,’ Tony told me. Blair believed Cameron had major strengths - political timing, a winning personality and a natural ability to communicate to Middle England that Gordon would be unable to match,” he added.

A Blair spokesperson denies the comment, but public sentiment seems to confirm he would say such a thing.

Cuba meddling in domestic politics

2008-04-27T12:33:00.002-04:00

The Cuban government has allegedly sought to to normalize its relationship with the United States by tarring Cuban-American politicians in scandals.

Olmert's vacation

2008-04-24T13:49:00.004-04:00

The New York Times reports that Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is likely passing word to the Syrians that he's willing to withdraw from the Golan Heights in exchange for peace between the two nations.

The same article also notes that Olmert is currently vacationing with his family and friends in a cabin on the Golan.

Is that his version of John Kennedy sending Pierre Salinger out to buy all the Cuban cigars in Washington D.C. the night he ordered the trade embargo?

So why is McKinnon still with McCain?

2008-04-23T21:03:00.004-04:00

"I would simply be uncomfortable being in a campaign that would be inevitably attacking Barack Obama." - Top John McCain media strategist Mark McKinnon on February 13, explaining why he would leave the Republican's campaign if Obama became the Democratic nominee.

These ads were not made by McCain, but they are from an organization he's directly linked to and arguably the nominal head of.

If McKinnon is true to his word, he should leave now; yet he's rolling along -- quite literally -- on McCain's bus in Kentucky.

"In the Bush campaign we used to say that we won the campaign in 2000 and 2004 between March and June," McKinnon told Time earlier today. "And I think the way things are going we could say that McCain won this election between March and June."

Well if it's over by then, why ever leave?

A liability

2008-04-22T13:15:00.002-04:00

Bill Clinton, yesterday on WHYY :

INTERVIEWER: “Do you think [comparing Barack Obama's South Carolina victory to that of Jesse Jackson's] was a mistake, and would you do that again?"
CLINTON: "No. I think that they played the race card on me. And we now know, from memos from the campaign and everything, that they planned to do it along."

Today, to NBC/National Journal reporter Mike Memoli:

NBC/NJ: “Sir, what did you mean yesterday when you said that the Obama campaign was playing the race card on you?”
CLINTON: “When did I say that, and to whom did I say that?”

NBC/NJ: “On WHYY radio yesterday”

CLINTON: “No, no, no. That’s not what I said. You always follow me around and play these little games, and I’m not going to play your games today. This is a day about election day. Go back and see what the question was, and what my answer was. You have mischaracterized it to get another cheap story to divert the American people from the real urgent issues before us, and I choose not to play your game today. Have a nice day.”

He goes on, but does it really matter?

Search engine informational warfare

2008-04-22T11:23:00.003-04:00

Via Mike Allen:

Someone bought TuckerBounds.com for $10.19 yesterday. Hint: It wasn't Tucker Bounds.

If this is a Google-bomb/AdWords-driven spokesman watchdog group, then... wow.

If 2006 was a precursor, it looks like this will be the year of full-blown search engine informational warfare.

Politics and pro wrestling

2008-04-22T08:28:00.000-04:00

Whatever gets people voting, right?

Kids today

2008-04-21T22:56:00.003-04:00

Older members of the Senate are finding that their stature is not translating into electoral cakewalks. Rather, most are facing tough fights.

In New Jersey, 84* year-old Frank Lautenberg will have to fend off a well-funded Democratic primary challenger in Rep. Rob Andrews, 51, before the likely GOP nominee, former Rep. Dick Zimmer, 64, who is no political novice.

And earlier today in Alaska, Democrat Anchorage Mayor Mark Begich, 46, officially announced he will take on long-time Republican Sen. Ted Stevens who, on election day, will be two weeks away from turning 85. This will likely be the most significant challenge Stevens has ever faced, given his age and recent corruption investigations into his home and his family.

The next oldest Senators, John Warner, 81, and Pete Domenici, 76, chose not to stand for reelection.

Then again, 72 year-old Senators Pat Roberts and Elizabeth Dole look strong in their re-election prospects, as do Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, 73, and Missouri Sen. Thad Cochran, 71.

*Unless otherwise noted, these are the ages they will be on November 4, 2008.

Quick-draw response teams

2008-04-21T22:54:00.001-04:00

Chuck Todd, on the message machines:

For all the recycled Clinton-Obama bickering this past weekend -- over health care, who’s being more negative, and who’s saying nice things about Republicans or using GOP talking points -- Democrats should be encouraged by what they're seeing in terms of the general election, at least when it comes to the blocking and tackling of politics. Their rapid response teams of both these campaigns are well oiled and battle tested. And as Newsweek reported, Team Obama is expanding its rapid response squad for the general. But the same can’t be said for team McCain, which isn’t quite sure whether its opponent will be Obama or Clinton and which hasn’t engaged in all-out political fight since Florida back in January.

Snow on CNN

2008-04-21T22:48:00.002-04:00

Just in time to pick apart the results from the Pennsylvania primary, Tony Snow has joined CNN.

Perhaps he and MSNBC's David Gregory can square off for old time's sake.

On Hillaryland

2008-04-21T22:44:00.002-04:00

It's hard to know how much to believe when reading a behind-the-curtain piece like today's Michelle Cottle on Hillaryland.

If true, the take away from this article is how wily Mark Penn has been at keeping the deck stacked against his colleagues in Clinton headquarters.

Oil woes

2008-04-21T22:37:00.003-04:00

The price of oil hit a new high today at $117.40 per barrel in the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Fears are being stoked by an apparent rocket attack on a Japanese tanker off the coast of Yemen, rebels attacking a Nigerian pipeline last week, and an impending labor strike in Scotland that threatens to reduce world supply by 200,000 barrels per day.

Barring the Scottish news, the question must be whether the most recent news of the market's volatile relationship between attacks and price inspire more violence to affect supply?

CBS debate axed

2008-04-21T16:03:00.002-04:00

It looks like Katie Couric won't get the debate her network so desperately wanted for her.

Pennalicious

2008-04-21T12:20:00.002-04:00

This ad is dripping with the Penn*-driven 'experience' message. Guess someone's not so sidelined after all.

*That's Mark, not the state.

Stay classy, John McCain

2008-04-18T22:42:00.005-04:00

While a tenth of the electorate falsely believes that Barack Obama is a secret Muslim, John McCain is fundraising off the specter of fear Obama would be an agent for the Palestinian terror organization Hamas, even impugning his theme of 'change.'

Barack Obama's foreign policy plans have even won him praise from Hamas leaders. Ahmed Yousef, chief political adviser to the Hamas Prime Minister said, "We like Mr. Obama and we hope he will win the election. He has a vision to change America."

What McCain doesn't want his supporters to know is that today Obama received the endorsement of former Georgia Sen. Sam Nunn -- an endorsement that shows it is Obama who has done more to fight the terrorist threats against our homeland.

Nunn is co-chairman and C.E.O. of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, an organization with the mission to bring together people with different ideological views to close the gap between the global threats from nuclear, biological and chemical weapons. It's a phenomenal group, combining science and diplomacy, working with allied and even not-so allied nations to track down and destroy dangerous materials, while bringing much needed attention to the most overlooked front in our struggle against large-scale terrorism.

Obama understands the magnitude of the threat and has taken action. Last summer, the Lugar-Obama nonproliferation initiative secured a $48 million funding increase to destroy conventional weapons stockpiles, seek to intercept weapons of mass destruction and respond to proliferation emergencies. It's a small step, but a good signal to the priorities he would set as president.

Troopergate truth

2008-04-18T19:55:00.004-04:00

This was in New York magazine a week ago: the real Darren Dopp, former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer's top aide who lost his job over last summer's Troopergate scandal.

Turns out Dopp was selected as the fall guy for what was represented to him as a slap on the wrist, brief suspension. He soon found himself a target in a criminal investigation and wide ridicule -- including from within the Spitzer administration (“They’re shooting you in the back,” Attorney General Andrew Cuomo told him).

Ultimately Dopp had to decide whether he would "be a fall guy or a rat." He ended up becoming both, when he told investigators that Spitzer personally authorized the leak of Joe Bruno's travel expenses to the press, saying, "Shove it up his ass with a red-hot poker.”

A truly enlightening -- and sad -- story for anyone who followed the events as they unfolded.

Bob Reich to endorse Obama

2008-04-18T08:38:00.002-04:00

Former Labor Secretary Robert Reich is set to endorse Barack Obama today.

Why Obama, and why now?

"I saw the ads," he said.

Not a neophyte

2008-04-18T08:17:00.003-04:00

It's tough to take the kind of lumps Obama has been taking, but it's even harder so when you're ideologically aligned with the person who's attacking you. Obama can't say that Hillary Clinton is trying to distract people from the issues, since they agree in how to solve them.

So this sentence in Patrick Healy's Times article this morning should be encouraging to a lot of superdelegates.

Until the nominating fight ends, Mr. Obama said, he is “trying to show some restraint.” He added, “I won’t have as much restraint with the Republicans."

Fretful five becomes four

2008-04-16T10:17:00.002-04:00

Rep. Andre Carson, who recently succeeded his late grandmother Julia in Indiana's Fifth, is endorsing Sen. Barack Obama.

Will he also come out to support Evan Bayh for the number two spot?

Hagel, Bloomberg in Denver?

2008-04-16T09:05:00.003-04:00

The what is likely inevitable appearance of Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman at this summer's Republican National Convention will mean the Democrats will want to pull out their own aisle-crosser to keynote.

Sen. Jim Webb may seem a little too Democratic these days, but outgoing Nebraska Sen. Chuck Hagel or New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg might seem like the right guys for the job. Bloomberg less so, because he could be jockeying for a 2012 run, and Hagel more so because he, like Lieberman, is a distinctive for his position on the Iraq war.

Brown in eight

2008-04-15T22:45:00.002-04:00

Get to know Mr. Gordon Brown, Prime Minister of Great Britain, in an eight minute interview with Time magazine.

Gore vs. Clinton 2000

2008-04-15T21:27:00.002-04:00

On CNN's forum on faith Sunday night, Hillary Clinton put down the candidacies of Al Gore and John Kerry saying, "We had two very good men and men of faith run for president in 2000 and 2004, but large segments of the electorate concluded that they did not really understand or relate to or frankly respect their ways of life."

This bothered E.J. Dionne.

That "frankly" is the most appalling word in the whole sentence. And never mind that Al Gore ran 360,000 votes ahead of Senate candidate Clinton when both were on New York's ballot in the 2000 election.

Passing the buck getting worn

2008-04-15T10:08:00.004-04:00

McCain makes another national security gaffe. Had he not paid attention, or was he falling back on a familiar ploy: 'When in doubt, pass the buck to Petraeus.'

Speaking Monday at the annual meeting of the Associated Press, McCain was asked whether he, if elected, would shift combat troops from Iraq to Afghanistan to intensify the search for al-Qaida leader Osama bin Laden.
"I would not do that unless Gen. [David] Petraeus said that he felt that the situation called for that," McCain said, referring to the top U.S. commander in Iraq.

Petraeus, however, made clear last week that he has nothing to do with the decision. Testifying last week before four congressional committees, including the Senate Armed Services Committee on which McCain is the ranking Republican, Petraeus said the decision about whether troops could be shifted from Iraq to Afghanistan was not his responsibility because his portfolio is limited to the multi-national force in Iraq.

Perhaps a bit of both.

Judis exaggerates Barack Obama's electoral death

2008-04-15T08:38:00.005-04:00

Respected Democratic political scientist John B. Judis has an article in The New Republic which seems to say that Barack Obama surely cannot win the presidency against John McCain -- especially after his San Francisco comments.

To win in November, a Democratic presidential candidate has to carry most of the industrial heartland states that stretch from Pennsylvania to Missouri. That becomes even more imperative if a Democrat can't carry Florida--and because of his relative weakness in South Florida, Obama is unlikely to do so against McCain. Ruy Teixeira and I have calculated that in the heartland states, a Democratic presidential candidate has to win from 45 to 48 percent of the white working class vote. In some states, like West Virginia and Kentucky, the percentage is well over a majority.

He then describes the three models of candidates needed for a Democrat to win over these voters: The Unacceptable Republican (someone they couldn't have a beer with), The Acceptable Democrat (whose social positions don't frighten them), or The Empathetic Democrat (someone who feels their pain).

According to Judis, the first two options are out of the question in '08 for both Democrats, and the third model? He thinks Hillary's got Obama beat there.

The flaw is that Judis bases his argument for an "adequate" 43 to 44 percent share of the white working-class vote to win a national majority on numbers that he and Teixeira crunched in the summer of 2007. The huge numbers Democrats have racked up around the country in the 2008 contests -- largely due to Obama increasing the turnout among African Americans, the young, and suburban professionals -- proves the pie has expanded since their calculations. White working class voters will still be a major part of the Democratic majority come November, but their share might not be as large as he thinks.

Judis should also reconsider his proposal that Hillary is more able to connect with working class whites than Obama. After all, the country knows more about his battle with the Clintons than how he was raised by a single mom and Midwest grandparents or how he just finished paying off his student loans a few years ago. Hillary also keeps Mark Penn on her staff, who Judis and Teixeira used as a prime example of those who blamed Al Gore's 2000 loss on his pursuit of white working-class voters. If she goes on to the nomination, he will surely be back at the message helm.

In that very same book, they also note how Republicans have become clumsier in using race to divide the electorate, and how Democrats' updated positions on affirmative action (as Obama proposes to make it more needs-based than race-based) and similar issues have caused blatant racially-charged attacks to backfire. So Judis might take his own observations into consideration on whether Obama's skin color will be that much of a hindrance.

To paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of Barack Obama's electoral death are greatly exaggerated.

Senor gets burned

2008-04-15T08:06:00.002-04:00

Dan Senor made news when he said on This Week that Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice was putting out political feelers to get her the number two spot on John McCain's ticket.

But yesterday, she told the AP, “I don’t want to be, don’t intend to be, won’t be on the ticket.”

Reactions to Hillary's "bitter" borne PA ad

2008-04-14T22:38:00.002-04:00

Another hit from Marc Ambinder:

A Republican could easily run this ad.
To which the Clinton campaign will say: "Exactly!"

To which the Obama campaign will say: "Exactly!"

And Arianna Huffington had this nice quip: "She's burning down the village to save it -- or to prove that she would make the best fire chief."

Bayh blocker

2008-04-14T16:25:00.003-04:00

David Mark of Politico looks into the 'fretful five' uncommitted Democratic House members from Indiana. The article is pretty bland, taking a while to get to its best point: Evan Bayh is for Clinton, thus,

A vote for Obama, then, might be perceived as a vote to thwart the national aspirations of the state’s most popular Democrat.

Third termers

2008-04-14T14:36:00.004-04:00

New rumors appear in this morning's New York Times suggesting that Mayor Michael Bloomberg is ruminating a third mayoral term. Currently he and 36 members of the New York City Council are term-limited from seeking re-election, with Speaker Christine Quinn being one of them.

The mayor has been an opponent of a term limits repeal, vetoing a bill a few years ago, but as the article says, the prospect of a third term could keep his political clout from declining. A repeal could find some friendly support in city government, too. Surely Quinn doesn't want her sun to set on a sour note. Another term could be just what Quinn for Mayor '09 '13 needs.

Elsewhere, outgoing Russian President Vladmir Putin has been offered the helm of the majority United Russia party, which will expand his powers from the Prime Ministership, and possibly set the stage for his return to the presidency for a third term at a future date.

Clark's VP prospects

2008-04-13T15:54:00.003-04:00

Lawrence O'Donnell reminds us this morning that he was the first of the pundit class to predict Wesley Clark would be the '08 Democratic vice presidential nominee. This self-congratulating is in response to Bob Shrum bringing it up on Meet the Press.

Clark has been a good surrogate for Clinton, and stayed out of the muck enough to keep himself viable for Obama. As for someone who could unite Democrats after what has been a bitter fight, his political identity within the party may be too dependent on the Clintons for him to branch out to Obama supporters; and vice versa, leave him not enough of a leader with Clinton people to bring them back Obama.

Quinn '09 really, really dead

2008-04-12T13:25:00.004-04:00

New York City Council Speaker Christine Quinn held a press conference yesterday to announce her plan to provide more transparency to the council's dispensation of funds. Revelations that Quinn's office assigned money to fictitious groups so it could later go elsewhere sans oversight has seriously damaged her 2009 mayoral hopes.

The Friday event was meant to get the plan out there to provide swift* action without keeping the story alive, but it was not meant to be. The lede went to news that Quinn has hired a criminal defense lawyer at taxpayer expense(!) to represent her during the investigations of these questionable spending practices.

*Swift-ish.... It's been well over a week since the scandal broke.

Rove, Bush 41 for Vice President Romney

2008-04-11T12:25:00.002-04:00

Karl Rove and George Herbert Walker Bush are supporting Mitt Romney's bid to be John McCain's VP, sources tell John Heilemann of New York magazine.

One to watch: street money

2008-04-11T12:13:00.002-04:00

The Los Angeles Times reports that Obama is refusing to disburse the traditional "street money" in his Pennsylvania primary campaign.

Flush with payments from well-funded campaigns, the ward leaders and Democratic Party bosses typically spread out the cash in the days before the election, handing $10, $20 and $50 bills to the foot soldiers and loyalists who make up the party's workforce.

Watch where this goes.

Carter and Hamas

2008-04-10T22:37:00.002-04:00

It sounds as if former President Jimmy Carter likely to meet with leaders of Hamas during his trip to Syria sometime next week.

This would come as a new Israeli study finds the terrorist organization gearing up for new attacks through a broad military buildup, largely orchestrated from their base in Damascus with Syrian and Iranian money and weapons.

On political cliches

2008-04-10T16:59:00.002-04:00

Marc Ambinder amuses:

Back when Ida Tarbel was writing, said conspiracy actually existed, and yet I bet she managed to avoid ever putting the adjective "big" next to the noun "oil."

Petraeus not interested in public office

2008-04-10T15:56:00.004-04:00

Four-star Army Gen. David Petraeus tells NBC's Brian Williams that he will "never" run for public office.

The New Jersey native delivered the Sherman statement last year when Fox News' Mike Wallace asked him if he were interested in the Republican nomination for vice president.

Battling for McCain

2008-04-10T10:56:00.004-04:00

Two articles out today discuss rival factions competing for dominance in John McCain's camp.

'Papa John' by Jason Zengerle of The New Republic discusses infighting in McCain's core campaign structure, with the antagonists being former top aide John Weaver and current campaign manager Rick Nelson.

And Liz Bummiller and Larry Rohter's New York Times piece, '2 Camps Trying to Influence McCain on Foreign Policy,' pits realist Henry Kissinger against neoconservative Bob Kagan.

The former explains a lot and really speaks for itself, while the latter fight is much more volatile at this point. Remember back to August of 2006, it was thought that Robert Zoellick was going to be the big thinker behind McCain's candidacy. Now he's at the World Bank trying to help deflate food prices.

Matthews unleashed

2008-04-10T10:42:00.003-04:00

Trying to staunch some of the pageview buzz hemorrhaging from Patrick Gavin's leaked copy, the New York Times Magazine released its lengthy profile of Chris Matthews yesterday as a preview -- three ahead of schedule.

It's long enough to want to wait to read it in print.

Violence as Nepal tries to reorganize

2008-04-09T20:56:00.002-04:00

Like its campaign season, it seems Election Day in Nepal will not be bloodless. Eight are reported dead in separate incidents on election eve.

The Maoist rebels who terrorized the monarchic government laid down their arms under U.N. supervision to take on the United Marxist Leninsts in electing delegates to a constitutional convention, but violence was not left behind. Several election season killings were noted in this morning’s New York Times, including a death-by-boulder assassination attempt.

The front-page article suggests the conflicted feelings toward bringing terrorists into the system rather than continuing to pursue them into the Nepalese wilderness. That the elections are free and fair, as well as how the parties abide by their results will be the indicators of whether a peaceful resolution can be found.

The NewsHour effect

2008-04-09T18:26:00.003-04:00

Florida Republican Adam Putnam and California Democrat Xavier Becerra disagreed over Iraq in a civil debate moderated by Gwen Ifill on NewsHour this evening. It was subdued as conversations go, and downright comatose by cable news standards.

Becerra is not as familiar a face, but Putnam has been a political talk show regular in his role as chair of the House Republican Conference. It was certainly a different side of Putnam tonight. What is it about NewsHour that causes members of Congress to stop shouting and walking all over each other's thoughts to actually have a debate?

The 'once-it's-settled' bump

2008-04-09T16:52:00.004-04:00

Chuck Todd sure is a smart guy. He plots McCain's course to victory in a column, predicting a huge Democratic bump -- "like post-convention" -- once their nominating contest is complete. The sooner he can prepare the pundits to absorb this as something that is expectable, the better he will fare.

But then it's a matter of survival, and the numbers are important.

If McCain’s is hanging in, behind by 10 or so points, then it is clear he will have a shot. If the bounce pushes the Democratic nominee to as much as a 15 point lead, it may be very demoralizing to the GOP.

Gregory's rising star

2008-04-09T12:37:00.002-04:00

Per Patrick Gavin's advance copy of this weekend's New York Times Magazine profile of Chris Matthews:

Friends say Matthews is wary of another up-and-comer, David Gregory, who last month was given a show at 6 o'clock, between airings of "Hardball." It is a common view around NBC that Gregory is trying out as a possible replacement for Matthews.

The silver-haired Gregory carries a lot of stature for someone who is only 37 years old. Forget Matthews, he's probably going for Russert's job.

Only one outlet for negativity in PA primary

2008-04-09T08:27:00.004-04:00

The Philadelphia Inquirer:

Both candidates want to damage the other's popularity, but are afraid to use the weapon that really gets results: the hard-edged, 30-second attack ad with grainy black-and-white images and an announcer reciting the worst things about an opponent.

Given the Clinton camp's recent troubles, Obama hasn't needed much help lately. But Clinton?

Lanny Davis on the op-ed page of the Wall Street Journal:

I have tried to get over my unease surrounding Barack Obama's response to the sermons and writings of his pastor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright of Trinity United Church of Christ in Chicago. But the unanswered questions remain.

I am a strong supporter of and a substantial fundraiser for Hillary Clinton for president (though in this column I speak only for myself). I still believe she should and will be the Democratic nominee. But if Sen. Obama wins the nomination, he needs to understand that this issue goes well beyond Clinton partisans.

Both via Mark Halperin.

CBS-CNN deal could shape Face the Nation

2008-04-08T20:34:00.002-04:00

According to the New York Times, CBS is in talks with Time Warner to combine its news resources with CNN.

This is certainly good for CNN’s roster of pundits (read: Anderson Cooper) interested in succeeding Bob Schieffer on Face the Nation.

185,000 precincts

2007-08-21T14:09:00.001-04:00

Michael Dukakis, who won only 9 states in his 1988 presidential bid, is working informally with the Democratic National Committee on organizing precincts in all fifty states.

True to his technocratic roots, Mr. Dukakis has the idea of replicating, on every street, avenue, and rural route in the country, the kind of personal relationships that once powered big-city political machines—with precinct captains calling on their neighbors every few weeks, asking them about their concerns, talking up their candidate and following up on any questions they might have. Mr. Dukakis’ vision is rooted in good government—making sure, for instance, that a neighbor’s concerns about school vouchers are satisfactorily addressed.

Sunday's reads

2007-08-19T21:26:00.000-04:00

'Tommy's Empty Tank' - Michael Currie Schaffer - The New Republic.

It's hard to remember now, but well before Rove became a household name, Thompson was among the folks considered to be the future of the GOP. Along with fellow 1990s Republican governors Jim Edgar (Illinois), John Engler (Michigan), George Voinovich (Ohio), George Pataki (New York), Tom Ridge (Pennsylvania), Christine Todd Whitman (New Jersey), William Weld (Massachusetts) and Marc Racicot (Montana), the Wisconsin governor was portrayed as the thinking man's Republican, mixing conservative ideals with the practical job of governing--a neat counterpoint to the snarling, obstructionist, impeachment-happy culture warriors in the party's congressional leadership.

'Rather Says Bloomberg Ruled Out White House Bid' - Sewell Chan - City Room.

Mr. Rather: Michael Bloomberg, mayor of New York, told me that he was not going to run for president. In a direct answer to a direct question, would he run under any circumstances, he danced around a bit and finally said ‘No.’ Furthermore, he said he wasn’t open to even considering running as a vice presidential candidate with anybody, and he wouldn’t take a place in anybody’s cabinet.”

'Annals of Reporting' - Josh Marshall - Talking Points Memo.

Actually, if you look at what he says, it seems Skube's editor at the Times oped page didn't think he had enough specific examples in his article decrying our culture of free-wheeling assertion bereft of factual backing. Or perhaps any examples. So the editor came up with a few blogs to mention and Skube signed off. And Skube was happy to sign off on the addition even though he didn't know anything about them.

Race race

2007-08-19T13:52:00.000-04:00

A top staffer for Barack Obama says he needs to perform well in Iowa in order to show Democrats that white voters will support a black candidate. Iowa --- a state that is 94% white according to the 2000 census -- is "the big one," in the words of Obama national field director, Temo Figueroa.

Seeking the defeated

2007-08-17T16:06:00.000-04:00

Alexander Burns makes an interesting find.

Every campaign has important regional fundraisers and surrogate speakers. In Obama's case, a number of his most vigorous supporters ran unsuccessfully for the Senate in 2004 - the same year Obama won his seat in Congress.

The list includes South Carolina's Inez Tenenbaum, Oklahoma's Brad Carson, and South Dakota's Tom Daschle. Daschle's old campaign staff -- from top almost to bottom -- are now working for Obama (not to mention the many who moved from Daschle's to Obama's Senate office in 2005).

And what's more: the method is precedented.

When he ran for president in 1976, Jimmy Carter helped build a network of supporters for his campaign by contacting Democratic candidates who had been defeated in 1974. Rather than focusing solely on the endorsements of powerful elected officials and well-known pols, Carter tapped into the networks of unsuccessful office-seekers in order to strengthen his campaign's national reach.

The text president

2007-08-17T15:55:00.000-04:00

Matt Bai has a great idea in today's New York Times:

MAYBE someday soon the candidates will have laptop computers at their lecterns, and we’ll hang a giant screen behind the stage. Then, as one candidate is talking, the others will use instant messaging to create a kind of scrolling commentary and critique, and all the comments will appear overhead.

Cuellar colludes

2007-08-17T12:37:00.001-04:00

The Wall Street Journal's Kimberly A. Strassell pens another column on clashes between some Democratic lawmakers and the netroots. The focus is on Texas Congressman Henry Cuellar, who has a theory about those who have been in primary battles with candidates supported by online activists.

Mr. Cuellar goes so far as to argue that instead of cowing Democratic moderates, the left-wing attacks have united them. More middle-of-the-roaders now believe that if the bloggers were to win a high-profile primary, it would only energize them to go after others. "This has brought us together to say, 'this is us, and we've got to stick together,'" he says.

Cuellar also reveals to Strassell his thoughts on San Francisco's own, Speaker Nancy Pelosi. "I've seen her behind the scenes, and I've always thought she was liberal, but she's done a good job of trying to bring us more to the middle."

Friday's reads

2007-08-17T12:27:00.000-04:00

'Check Mate' - James Kirchick - The New Republic.

Gay marriage advocates need to convince a substantial majority of the country that gay marriage is a moral good before pressuring presidential candidates to take a position on such a highly charged issue.

'Edwards, Foreclosure Critic, Has Investing Tie to Subprime Lenders' - Christopher Cooper - The Wall Street Journal.

Mr. Edwards didn't give details on how or when he was going to proceed, either to alter his holdings or to aid borrowers. He said he plans to begin making amends to New Orleans homeowners first by contacting them and "seeing where they are in the process." He said his help may come from his own cash or in collaboration with a charity that specializes in repairing homes. The foreclosures, Mr. Edwards said, "run counter to what I'm about."

'Lautenberg’s golden years' - Matt Friedman - Politics NJ.

Jennifer Duffy, a Senior Editor at the Cook Political Report in Washington, said that pollsters in the Garden State often come across a tough attitude towards local politicians that doesn’t always reflect who voters choose on Election Day. Indeed, even if his approval rating isn’t stellar, Lautenberg’s well above the rating for congress as a whole.

Whitewater whitewash

2007-08-17T12:23:00.000-04:00

In New York, Democrats are finished with trying move beyond the scandal over Gov. Eliot Spitzer's improper use of state troopers to keep tabs on his top Republican rival through apologies. Instead, the New York Observer finds that Democrats are attempting to draw a parallel between the persecution of Spitzer and that of the "never-ending" partisan investigations of the Clinton White House.

While Spitzer has yet to personally take part, Reps. Carolyn Maloney and Jerry Nadler have made the comparison publicly.

Historical toss-up

2007-08-17T12:19:00.000-04:00

If Senator Tim Johnson seeks re-election in 2008, his chances are historically a toss-up, according to the Argus Leader's David Kranz. Starting with 1960, South Dakotans have voted eight times for presidential and Senate candidates in the same year.

Republicans were supported all eight times for president. Democrats won the Senate race four times. Republicans won the Senate race four times.

Rove yearbook

2007-08-14T16:09:00.000-04:00

The Salt Lake Tribune recalls Karl Rove's early involvement in Utah politics, including first campaign: running for student body president at Salt Lake County's Olympus High.

"[Whether] munching Oreos or politicking, Mr. Karl Rove was a man of the people," his 1969 yearbook read. "He put the Olympian [student body] Senate into motion with his characteristically well-versed arguments and witty comments."

Hastert decides

2007-08-14T16:07:00.000-04:00

"Former House Speaker Dennis Hastert has set Friday for his long-awaited announcement on whether he will seek re-election in Illinois' far west suburban 14th Congressional District," The Chicago Tribune reports.

State Sen. Chris Lauzen of Aurora and dairy owner and investment manager Jim Oberweis have been courting the district's conservative voters, and more recently, Geneva Mayor Kevin Burns expressed interest in the GOP nomination if Hastert decides not to seek re-election.

Stock scrutiny

2007-08-14T16:03:00.000-04:00

Mitt Romney's investments – placed in a blind trust when he became Massachusetts' governor in 2003 – were released yesterday, as part of a federal requirement for presidential candidates.

The Los Angeles Times reports that the manager of Romney's financial portfolio sold certain stocks "after Romney publicly called for divestment from companies doing business in Iran." Yet Romney, the wealthiest presidential candidate, maintains "stock in China Petroleum and Chemical (also known as SinoPec), an oil supply company that has dealings in Sudan, according to an organization dedicated to ending the genocide in the African nation's Darfur region."

Romney's "biggest single holding" – MGM Mirage casinos in Las Vegas – may become a contentious issue with religious conservatives.

Closer look

2007-08-14T15:59:00.000-04:00

In a glowing editorial today, New Hampshire's influential conservative newspaper, The Manchester Union-Leader, says Mike Huckabee "deserves a closer look from Republican and independent voters" after his second-place finish at Ames Strawpoll.

Of all the lesser-known GOP candidates, Huckabee has impressed us the most. He is articulate, sharp, and well-versed on more topics than one would expect a small-state governor to be knowledgeable about.

Lesson from the Rove years

2007-08-14T15:52:00.001-04:00

There are too many good pieces in David Frum's op-ed on the Rove legacy to choose just one.

Instead of seeking solutions to national problems, “compassionate conservatism” started with slogans and went searching for problems to justify them. To what problem, exactly, was the faith-based initiative a solution?

.....

Polarization, however, is Karl Rove’s specialty. He united his own base on one side — and united his opponents on the other. Al Gore and John Kerry each won 48 percent, the best back-to-back performance by a losing party since the 19th century. Play-to-the-base politics can be a smart strategy — so long as your base is larger than your opponents’.

.....

We were so mesmerized by the specious analogies between 1996 and 1896 that we forgot that analogies are literary devices, not evidence.

Rove to Thompson?

2007-08-14T12:46:00.000-04:00

Judging Rove's history, Rick Perlstein thinks the GOP's top political operative may be headed to the Fred Thompson campaign.

In 1972 he got a job working for the Committee to Re-Elect the President's Youth Division. Which sounds pretty innocent. But the youth division, run by a guy named Ken Rietz, was actually the wheelhouse for infiltrating the Edmund Muskie campaign. (An aside: Rietz is a top advisor to Fred Thompson's imminent presidential campaign. There are whispers that Thompson might become Karl Rove's next candidate. And as we know now, Fred Thompson served as the Nixon White House's spy with the Watergate prosecution.)

Thompson obit

2007-08-13T14:30:00.000-04:00

Joe Klein makes a good observation on the demise of Tommy Thompson's presidential bid.

The other factor is that Thompson, much as he tried to pretend otherwise, simply wasn't as conservative as the Republican base. Unlike Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush (and now Mitt Romney), who act as if Washington, D.C. were the capital of France, Thompson actually believes in government and practiced his beliefs in a creative, humane but highly efficient way, especially when it came to welfare reform in the early 1990s. That seems a terrible liability for a GOP candidate these days.

Immigration entry

2007-08-13T14:02:00.000-04:00

Updated.

Responding to Mitt Romney's attacks on Rudy Giuliani for allegedly harboring illegals as New York City Mayor, Michael Bloomberg swung back -- but more for the immigrants than for his predecessor.

When asked about the comments in Manhattan today, Bloomberg said, "Boy, let 'em come." He went on to say, "This city and this country were built by immigrants. Thrive on immigrants. And without more immigrants we don’t have a future."

***Looking at what Romney said, it was clearly an attack on what he perceived as Giuliani's handling of things -- and not New York or immigrants (Romney's not completely casting off his cross-over appeal to Blue State voters). How far the questioner went would be interesting to know. The New York Observer says Bloomberg was "asked about the comments." If Bloomberg was egged on -- for example, asked about his policy on immigrants -- his answer is understandable.

If not, he is yet again interjecting himself in the 2008 presidential race.***

*** Romney is labeling New York and other places "sanctuary cities" and threatening to cut off their federal funds if they don't do more to curtail illegal immigration.

Monday's reads

2007-08-13T13:41:00.000-04:00

'The Mark of Rove' - Paul A. Gigot - The Wall Street Journal.

"I just think it's time," he says, adding that he first floated the idea of leaving to Mr. Bush a year ago. His friends confirm he had been talking about it with others even earlier. But Democrats took Congress, and he didn't want to depart on that sour note. He then thought he'd leave after the State of the Union, but the Iraq and immigration fights beckoned. Finally, Chief of Staff Josh Bolten told senior White House aides that if they stayed past a certain point, they were obliged to remain to Jan. 20, 2009.

'Above the Fray' - Ryan Lizza - GQ.

Now Obama’s pollsters were finding alarming evidence that their candidate was vulnerable to the same phenomenon. When they compared the percentage of Democrats who said they strongly approved of Obama with the percentage who said they would vote for him, they found that the latter number was significantly lower than the former. Inside the campaign, aides dubbed this “the Gap.” It was a sobering, hard number that quantified the difference between vague enthusiasm and actual votes. For Hillary Clinton, the gap is much smaller. The majority of voters who strongly approve of her also say they will vote for her.

'Democrats quietly fear a backlash from Clinton' - Ron Fournier - Associated Press.

In more than 40 interviews, Democratic candidates, consultants and party chairs from every region pointed to internal polls that give Clinton strikingly high unfavorable ratings in places with key congressional and state races.

Voter ID

2007-08-13T10:03:00.001-04:00

Some observers have pointed out that only 14,000 voters turned out for this weekend's Ames Strawpoll -- a steep drop-off from participation in its last competitive races. Most have attributed the decline to Giuliani, Thompson and McCain not taking part, or to a lack of enthusiasm in the GOP. But MSNBC's First Read credits a stricter policy of ID enforcement.

Also, don't get carried away on turnout -- the Iowa GOP did a much better job of checking for Iowa IDs than in years past.

Packer: 'Fogosphere'

2007-08-12T19:30:00.001-04:00

Last week, George Packer took a look at the liberal and conservative blogs' reactions to the O'Hanlon/Pollack op-ed and The New Republic's 'Baghdad Diarist.' He sums up the online discourse like this:

These controversies are about many things—above all, about the conservative movement and liberal counter-movement that have defined American politics over the past quarter century—but they aren’t really about Iraq.

Sunday's reads

2007-08-12T10:54:00.000-04:00

'Fight Less, Win More' - Nathaniel Fick - The Washington Post.

I told the students to list the top three targets they would aim for if they were leading forces in Zabul province, a Taliban stronghold. When I asked a U.S. officer to share his list, he rattled off the names of three senior Taliban leaders to be captured or killed. Then I turned and asked an Afghan officer the same question. "First we must target the local councils to see how we can best help them," he replied. "Then we must target the local mullahs to find out their needs and let them know we respect their authority." Exactly. In counterinsurgency warfare, targeting is more about whom you bring in than whom you take out.

'Romney Iowa Victory Not Impressive "By Any Standard"' - Thomas B. Edsall - The Huffington Post.

Romney's margin over a collection of underfunded second and third tier challengers barely matched or fell short of past winners in much tougher battles involving multiple heavyweight candidates.

'No, It Wouldn’t Happen. Couldn’t. No Way.' - Patrick Healy - The New York Times.

Mrs. Clinton may come off as the student government president, at peace with Robert’s Rules of Order. But she likes it when the battle is joined, and Mr. Giuliani might push her to show that she would fight back as president, that she would never allow herself to be Swift-boated.

Someone else

2007-08-12T10:17:00.001-04:00

Noam Schieber of The New Republic on the Ames Strawpoll.

Huckabee spent exactly zero resources busing in supporters and still managed 18 percent of the vote. The other two campaigns bought hundreds, if not thousands, more straw-poll tickets than the number of votes they received. (Straw poll attendees must obtain a $35-ticket in order to vote. Campaigns typically buy them up and distribute them to supporters.) Huckabee bought around 1800 tickets and received almost 2600 votes. Clearly, Romney and Brownback dropped a lot of cash on people who ended up voting for someone else, and that someone else was probably Huckabee.

"A hollow victory"

2007-08-12T09:52:00.000-04:00

Iowa political journalist David Yepsen called Mitt Romney's Ames Strawpoll win, "a hollow victory."

Mitt Romney may have won the Iowa GOP straw poll Saturday in Ames but it was a bit of a hollow victory. That’s a sign he may not be the prohibitive front runner in Iowa after all.

Yepsen also quotes one "Republican Strategist" telling him, "[I]n 1999, Democrats were suffering from Clinton fatigue. Now, we're suffering from Bush fatigue."

Unofficial Ames results

2007-08-11T21:28:00.000-04:00

Marc Ambinder has the unofficial results.

Romney wins with 31% and a paltry 4,516 votes -- far under his campaign's predictions. Huckabee placed second with 18.1% with 2587, but not too far ahead of Brownback (15.3%) and Tancredo (13.7%). Don't expect any of them to drop out yet.

Ron Paul (9.1%) will continue to raise eyebrows and Tommy Thompson (7.3%) will almost certainly drop his bid now.